Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis
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Plain English Summary
Here's a wild one: this landmark meta-analysis pooled 26 studies from seven labs over three decades to ask whether your body somehow knows what's coming before it happens. Across skin conductance, heart rate, brain scans, and pupil dilation, they found a small but statistically rock-solid effect -- people's bodies start reacting to upcoming emotional events before those events are randomly selected. Perhaps most eyebrow-raising: higher-quality studies produced bigger effects, the opposite of what you'd expect if sloppy methods were driving results. This paper became a lightning rod, prompting a pointed critique from Schwarzkopf and a rebuttal from the original authors. The conclusion? Something real seems to be happening, but nobody can explain how.
Research Notes
The foundational meta-analysis of presentiment/PAA research, directly cited by both sides of Controversy #3. Its finding that study quality correlates positively (not negatively) with effect size is unusual and frequently invoked in the broader psi methodology debate. Spawned the Schwarzkopf (2014) critique and the Mossbridge et al. (2014) rebuttal.
A meta-analysis of 26 prospective reports (1978–2010) from seven laboratories tested whether pre-stimulus physiological activity predicts the direction of post-stimulus responses to unpredictable stimuli. Using arousing-vs.-neutral and guessing-with-feedback paradigms across electrodermal, heart rate, blood volume, pupil dilation, EEG, and fMRI measures, the analysis found a small but highly significant overall effect (ES = 0.21, 95% CI = 0.15–0.27, z = 6.9, p < 2.7 × 10⁻¹²). Higher-quality studies produced quantitatively larger effects. Trim-and-fill analysis estimated four missing negative studies; Orwin's fail-safe N was 87. The authors conclude the effect is real but its mechanism remains unknown.
Links
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Critiqued By
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- Electrodermal Presentiments of Future Emotions — Radin, Dean I (2004)
- Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response Analyses, Artifacts and a Pilot Study — Spottiswoode, S.J.P (2003)
- Electrophysiological Evidence of Intuition: Part 1. The Surprising Role of the Heart — McCraty, Rollin (2004)
- Electrocortical Activity Prior to Unpredictable Stimuli in Meditators and Non-Meditators — Radin, Dean I (2011)
- Let Your Eyes Predict: Prediction Accuracy of Pupillary Responses to Random Alerting and Neutral Sounds — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Unconscious Perception of Future Emotions: An Experiment in Presentiment — Radin, Dean I (1997)
Meta Analyzed By
- Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence — Radin, Dean I (2011)
- Anomalous Cognition: An Umbrella Review of the Meta-Analytic Evidence — Tressoldi, Patrizio (2021)
- Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: An Update of Mossbridge et al.'s Meta-Analysis — Duggan, Michael (2018)
Cited By
- Psychophysical Modulation of Fringe Visibility in a Distant Double-Slit Optical System — Radin, Dean (2016)
- A Call for an Open, Informed Study of All Aspects of Consciousness — Cardeña, Etzel (2014)
- Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, A Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Let Your Eyes Predict: Prediction Accuracy of Pupillary Responses to Random Alerting and Neutral Sounds — Tressoldi, Patrizio E (2011)
- Quantum Aspects of the Brain-Mind Relationship: A Hypothesis with Supporting Evidence — Kauffman, Stuart A (2023)
- Electrocortical Activity Prior to Unpredictable Stimuli in Meditators and Non-Meditators — Radin, Dean I (2011)
- Bem's 'Feeling the Future' (2011) Five Years Later: Its Impact on Scientific Literature — Silva, Bruno A (2017)
- Inner Experience – Direct Access to Reality: A Complementarist Ontology and Dual Aspect Monism Support a Broader Epistemology — Walach, Harald (2020)
- Why Most Research Findings About Psi Are False: The Replicability Crisis, the Psi Paradox and the Myth of Sisyphus — Rabeyron, Thomas (2020)
- Must Psychologists Change the Way They Analyze Their Data? — Bem, Daryl J (2011)
- The Experimental Evidence for Parapsychological Phenomena: A Review — Cardeña, Etzel (2018)
- Parapsychological Phenomena as Examples of Generalized Nonlocal Correlations—A Theoretical Framework — Walach, Harald (2014)
- A Call for an Open, Informed Study of All Aspects of Consciousness — Cardeña, Etzel (2014)
- Anomalous Cognition: An Umbrella Review of the Meta-Analytic Evidence — Tressoldi, Patrizio (2021)
- Entertaining Without Endorsing: The Case for the Scientific Investigation of Anomalous Cognition — Schooler, Jonathan W (2018)
Cites
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📋 Cite this paper
Mossbridge, Julia, Tressoldi, Patrizio, Utts, Jessica (2012). Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis. Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00390
@article{mossbridge_2012_predictive,
title = {Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis},
author = {Mossbridge, Julia and Tressoldi, Patrizio and Utts, Jessica},
year = {2012},
journal = {Frontiers in Psychology},
doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2012.00390},
}