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Is presentiment a real physiological effect?

7 min read
Supporting (17) Critical (5)
22
Total Papers

Quick Summary

Presentiment (or "predictive anticipatory activity") refers to the claim that the human body shows measurable physiological responses β€” changes in skin conductance, heart rate, pupil dilation, or brain activity β€” several seconds before a randomly selected future stimulus, as if anticipating events that have not yet been determined.

Current Consensus

Presentiment has a stronger meta-analytic base than many other psi claims (d = 0.21 across 26 studies), and the effect has been reported across multiple physiological measures (EDA, EEG, heart rate, fMRI). However, critics argue the effect is an artifact of how baseline periods are defined, how stimuli are randomized, and how physiological signals are filtered. The 2014 Mossbridge et al. paper attempted to address these critiques directly, and the 2015 response to Schwarzkopf provided a detailed simulation showing expectation bias cannot account for most findings. Skeptics remain unconvinced. Notably, presentiment has attracted fewer high-profile direct rebuttals than Bem's work, possibly because the physiological methodology is more specialized. Recent pre-registered forced-choice precognition studies (Alibalaei et al. 2025) have reported null primary results but intriguing post hoc psi-missing, keeping the debate about unconscious anomalous cognition active.

Evidence Breakdown

Based on 22 papers

Supporting Evidence

1997

Unconscious Perception of Future Emotions: An Experiment in Presentiment

Radin (1997) -- The foundational presentiment paper: four experiments with 31 participants viewing 1,060 randomly selected photos showed clear orienting pre-sponses in EDA peaking at 4 SE differenc...

2012

Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis

Mossbridge, Tressoldi & Utts (2012) -- Meta-analysis of 26 presentiment studies finds an overall effect size of d = 0.21

2004

Electrodermal Presentiments of Future Emotions

Radin (2004) -- Electrodermal presentiment experiments showing anticipatory skin conductance responses

2002

A fMRI Brain Imaging Study of Presentiment

Bierman & Scholte (2002) -- One of the earliest fMRI studies of presentiment: 10 subjects scanned while viewing randomly presented emotional and neutral pictures; single-subject erotic vs neutral a...

2011

Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence

Radin (2011) -- "Predicting the Unpredictable" reviews 75 years of experimental evidence for anticipatory effects

2011

Electrocortical Activity Prior to Unpredictable Stimuli in Meditators and Non-Meditators

Radin, Vieten, Michel & Delorme (2011) -- EEG presentiment in 8 advanced nondual meditators (β‰₯3,000 hours) vs. 8 matched controls: 0/32 channels significant in controls, 5/32 in meditators (P<.05, ...

2004

Electrophysiological Evidence of Intuition: Part 1. The Surprising Role of the Heart

McCraty, Atkinson & Bradley (2004) -- First study to measure cardiac prestimulus response: heart rate deceleration significantly greater before future emotional vs. calm IAPS pictures (zpre = -3.19...

2014

Predicting the Unpredictable: Critical Analysis and Practical Implications of Predictive Anticipatory Activity

Mossbridge et al. (2014) -- "Predicting the Unpredictable: Critical Analysis and Practical Implications" refines the meta-analytic framework and addresses criticisms

2015

We Did See This Coming: Response to 'We Should Have Seen This Coming' by D. Sam Schwarzkopf

Mossbridge et al. (2015) -- Point-by-point response to Schwarzkopf's six objections: simulation of 1000 experiments demonstrates ~92% of presentiment effects cannot be explained by expectation bias...

2018

Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: An Update of Mossbridge et al.'s Meta-Analysis

Duggan & Tressoldi (2018) -- Meta-analysis update of Mossbridge et al. (2012): 18 new studies (26 experiments, 34 effect sizes) from 2008-2017 yield overall g = 0.29 (95% CI [0.19, 0.38], p = 8Γ—10⁻...

2023

Sentiment and Presentiment in Twitter: Do Trends in Collective Mood "Feel the Future"?

Radin (2023) -- "Sentiment and Presentiment in Twitter" extends the presentiment paradigm from individual physiology to population-scale collective mood: analysis of 13 years of Twitter sentiment i...

2007

Toward Understanding the Placebo Effect: Investigating a Possible Retrocausal Factor

Radin & Lobach (2007) -- Slow cortical potentials at Oz differentiate before randomly determined light flash vs. no-flash (zpre=2.72, p=0.007 in females, N=20); sham brain control negative; propose...

2011

Let Your Eyes Predict: Prediction Accuracy of Pupillary Responses to Random Alerting and Neutral Sounds

Tressoldi et al. (2011) -- Pupil dilation predicts alerting sounds at 60.3% accuracy (z = 5.76, p = 4.2 Γ— 10⁻⁹, BF₁₀ = 3,225, N=80) using an automated prediction algorithm; extends the presentiment...

2003

Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response Analyses, Artifacts and a Pilot Study

Spottiswoode & May (2003) -- Audio startle presentiment study using 97-dB white noise instead of IAPS pictures to eliminate idiosyncratic responses: N=125 first-time participants, Z=3.27, ES_per_st...

2025

Experimental Investigation of Precognition in Yoga Practitioners

Alibalaei et al. (2025) -- Four pre-registered online forced-choice precognition experiments with yoga/meditation practitioners (total N=273) yielded non-significant primary results, but consistent...

2011

Exploring the Relationship between Tibetan Meditation Attainment and Precognition

Roney-Dougal & Solfvin (2011) -- Free-response precognition with 10 Tibetan Buddhist monks (2 Lamas, 1 Rinpoche, 7 Geshes) across 8 sessions each: overall null (t(79)=0.70, p=0.49), but the two Lam...

2011

Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences

Tressoldi (2011) -- Bayesian meta-analysis of anticipatory psycho-physiological responses (37 studies, 1,064 participants) yields BF=2.89Γ—10^13, strongest evidence among all protocols examined