Is presentiment a real physiological effect?
Quick Summary
Presentiment (or "predictive anticipatory activity") refers to the claim that the human body shows measurable physiological responses β changes in skin conductance, heart rate, pupil dilation, or brain activity β several seconds before a randomly selected future stimulus, as if anticipating events that have not yet been determined.
Current Consensus
Presentiment has a stronger meta-analytic base than many other psi claims (d = 0.21 across 26 studies), and the effect has been reported across multiple physiological measures (EDA, EEG, heart rate, fMRI). However, critics argue the effect is an artifact of how baseline periods are defined, how stimuli are randomized, and how physiological signals are filtered. The 2014 Mossbridge et al. paper attempted to address these critiques directly, and the 2015 response to Schwarzkopf provided a detailed simulation showing expectation bias cannot account for most findings. Skeptics remain unconvinced. Notably, presentiment has attracted fewer high-profile direct rebuttals than Bem's work, possibly because the physiological methodology is more specialized. Recent pre-registered forced-choice precognition studies (Alibalaei et al. 2025) have reported null primary results but intriguing post hoc psi-missing, keeping the debate about unconscious anomalous cognition active.
Evidence Breakdown
Based on 22 papersSupporting Evidence
Unconscious Perception of Future Emotions: An Experiment in Presentiment
Radin (1997) -- The foundational presentiment paper: four experiments with 31 participants viewing 1,060 randomly selected photos showed clear orienting pre-sponses in EDA peaking at 4 SE differenc...
Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis
Mossbridge, Tressoldi & Utts (2012) -- Meta-analysis of 26 presentiment studies finds an overall effect size of d = 0.21
Electrodermal Presentiments of Future Emotions
Radin (2004) -- Electrodermal presentiment experiments showing anticipatory skin conductance responses
A fMRI Brain Imaging Study of Presentiment
Bierman & Scholte (2002) -- One of the earliest fMRI studies of presentiment: 10 subjects scanned while viewing randomly presented emotional and neutral pictures; single-subject erotic vs neutral a...
Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence
Radin (2011) -- "Predicting the Unpredictable" reviews 75 years of experimental evidence for anticipatory effects
Electrocortical Activity Prior to Unpredictable Stimuli in Meditators and Non-Meditators
Radin, Vieten, Michel & Delorme (2011) -- EEG presentiment in 8 advanced nondual meditators (β₯3,000 hours) vs. 8 matched controls: 0/32 channels significant in controls, 5/32 in meditators (P<.05, ...
Electrophysiological Evidence of Intuition: Part 1. The Surprising Role of the Heart
McCraty, Atkinson & Bradley (2004) -- First study to measure cardiac prestimulus response: heart rate deceleration significantly greater before future emotional vs. calm IAPS pictures (zpre = -3.19...
Predicting the Unpredictable: Critical Analysis and Practical Implications of Predictive Anticipatory Activity
Mossbridge et al. (2014) -- "Predicting the Unpredictable: Critical Analysis and Practical Implications" refines the meta-analytic framework and addresses criticisms
We Did See This Coming: Response to 'We Should Have Seen This Coming' by D. Sam Schwarzkopf
Mossbridge et al. (2015) -- Point-by-point response to Schwarzkopf's six objections: simulation of 1000 experiments demonstrates ~92% of presentiment effects cannot be explained by expectation bias...
Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: An Update of Mossbridge et al.'s Meta-Analysis
Duggan & Tressoldi (2018) -- Meta-analysis update of Mossbridge et al. (2012): 18 new studies (26 experiments, 34 effect sizes) from 2008-2017 yield overall g = 0.29 (95% CI [0.19, 0.38], p = 8Γ10β»...
Sentiment and Presentiment in Twitter: Do Trends in Collective Mood "Feel the Future"?
Radin (2023) -- "Sentiment and Presentiment in Twitter" extends the presentiment paradigm from individual physiology to population-scale collective mood: analysis of 13 years of Twitter sentiment i...
Toward Understanding the Placebo Effect: Investigating a Possible Retrocausal Factor
Radin & Lobach (2007) -- Slow cortical potentials at Oz differentiate before randomly determined light flash vs. no-flash (zpre=2.72, p=0.007 in females, N=20); sham brain control negative; propose...
Let Your Eyes Predict: Prediction Accuracy of Pupillary Responses to Random Alerting and Neutral Sounds
Tressoldi et al. (2011) -- Pupil dilation predicts alerting sounds at 60.3% accuracy (z = 5.76, p = 4.2 Γ 10β»βΉ, BFββ = 3,225, N=80) using an automated prediction algorithm; extends the presentiment...
Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response Analyses, Artifacts and a Pilot Study
Spottiswoode & May (2003) -- Audio startle presentiment study using 97-dB white noise instead of IAPS pictures to eliminate idiosyncratic responses: N=125 first-time participants, Z=3.27, ES_per_st...
Experimental Investigation of Precognition in Yoga Practitioners
Alibalaei et al. (2025) -- Four pre-registered online forced-choice precognition experiments with yoga/meditation practitioners (total N=273) yielded non-significant primary results, but consistent...
Exploring the Relationship between Tibetan Meditation Attainment and Precognition
Roney-Dougal & Solfvin (2011) -- Free-response precognition with 10 Tibetan Buddhist monks (2 Lamas, 1 Rinpoche, 7 Geshes) across 8 sessions each: overall null (t(79)=0.70, p=0.49), but the two Lam...
Extraordinary Claims Require Extraordinary Evidence: The Case of Non-Local Perception, a Classical and Bayesian Review of Evidences
Tressoldi (2011) -- Bayesian meta-analysis of anticipatory psycho-physiological responses (37 studies, 1,064 participants) yields BF=2.89Γ10^13, strongest evidence among all protocols examined
Critical Evidence
We Should Have Seen This Coming
Schwarzkopf (2014) -- Methodological critique arguing presentiment effects are artifacts of baseline correction, stimulus timing, and data analysis choices
Why Most Research Findings About Psi Are False: The Replicability Crisis, the Psi Paradox and the Myth of Sisyphus
Rabeyron (2020) -- Analysis of why most presentiment results cannot withstand methodological scrutiny, explicitly citing Ioannidis (2005) to argue that presentiment exhibits all six risk factors fo...
Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
Ioannidis (2005) -- The foundational mathematical framework showing why small effects (d=0.21), small samples, and multiple paradigms tested make presentiment findings likely false positives; direc...
Bierman (2020) -- Reports an absence of predictive anticipatory activity under tightly controlled conditions
Bierman (2020) -- Reports an absence of predictive anticipatory activity under tightly controlled conditions
Paper not yet added to catalog
Cross-Examining the Case for Precognition: Comment on Mossbridge and Radin (2018)
Houran, Lange & Hooper (2018) -- Multidisciplinary commentary (with Fermi Lab physicist Dan Hooper) arguing precognition/presentiment effects are neither meaningful nor interpretable: small effect ...