Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence
📄 Original study ↗📌 Appears in:
Plain English Summary
This is the big one — a sweeping 75-year review of every major lab experiment testing whether humans can somehow perceive the future. Dean Radin pulled together four different types of precognition research into one massive synthesis. Forced-choice experiments (like guessing cards) spanning 309 studies from 1935 to 1987 showed a small but wildly statistically significant effect. Remote viewing studies produced much larger effects. Presentiment research — where your body reacts to something before it happens — showed robust results with a Bayes Factor (a statistical confidence measure) of nearly 3 trillion to one. And Daryl Bem's decision-based experiments hit 8 out of 9 significant results. Here's the headline number that really turns heads: across 101 studies from 25 independent labs in 11 countries, 84% showed results in the predicted direction. The odds against that happening by chance? About 1.3 trillion to one. Perhaps most surprisingly, higher-quality studies actually produced larger effects — the opposite of what you'd expect if sloppy methods were driving the results. The effect sizes turned out comparable to typical findings in mainstream social psychology. That said, it's worth noting this review was conducted by the field's leading presentiment researcher, which raises fair questions about potential bias in which studies were selected and how they were interpreted.
Research Notes
Landmark review synthesizing entire precognition literature. The 84% replication rate across 25 independent international labs is the strongest argument against lab-specific artifacts. Frequently cited in presentiment (Controversy #3) and Bem (Controversy #2) debates. Provides quantitative foundation for claim that retrocausal effects are repeatable despite small effect sizes. Author is primary presentiment researcher — potential confirmation bias in study selection.
Comprehensive review of 75 years of laboratory experiments testing retrocausal phenomena. Four classes examined: (1) Forced-choice (309 studies, 1935-1987): e=0.02, z=11.4, p<6×10⁻²⁵; (2) Free-response (SRI/SAIC/PEAR remote viewing): e=0.21-0.23, z=4.85-5.8; (3) Psychophysiological presentiment (38 studies): e=0.26-0.28, z=6.07-8.7, Bayes Factor 2.9×10¹³ to 1; (4) Implicit decision (Bem's 9 experiments): 8 significant, z=6.66, Bayes Factor 13,669 to 1. Across 101 studies from 25 labs in 11 countries, 84% showed predicted direction (odds 1.3×10¹²). Higher quality studies yielded larger effects; effect sizes comparable to social psychology average (e=0.21).
Links
Related Papers
Meta Analyzes
- Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect — Bem, Daryl J (2011)
- Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis — Mossbridge, Julia (2012)
- "Future Telling": A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 — Honorton, Charles (1989)
Companion
Extends
- "Future Telling": A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 — Honorton, Charles (1989)
- Unconscious Perception of Future Emotions: An Experiment in Presentiment — Radin, Dean I (1997)
- Toward Understanding the Placebo Effect: Investigating a Possible Retrocausal Factor — Radin, Dean (2007)
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📋 Cite this paper
Radin, Dean I (2011). Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence. AIP Conference Proceedings. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3663725
@article{radin_2011_predicting,
title = {Predicting the Unpredictable: 75 Years of Experimental Evidence},
author = {Radin, Dean I},
year = {2011},
journal = {AIP Conference Proceedings},
doi = {10.1063/1.3663725},
}