Can Parapsychology Move Beyond the Controversies of Retrospective Meta-Analyses?
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Plain English Summary
Kennedy scrutinizes decades of parapsychology meta-analyses (studies pooling many experiments) and finds a core problem: most studies were far too small to detect anything. Only 20-33% got significant results, way below the 80% standard. A proper ganzfeld telepathy experiment needs about 201 participants, yet most used around 40 — giving roughly a 1-in-5 shot at finding a real effect. Here's the fascinating twist: in random number generator studies, result strength doesn't grow with sample size as statistics demands. Kennedy's explanation? Maybe experimenters unconsciously influence outcomes through their own psychic abilities — a deliciously circular idea. He calls for pre-registered, properly powered studies.
Research Notes
A cornerstone of Kennedy's methodology-critique program. Uniquely bridges the meta-debate with the elusiveness-of-psi problem by arguing that goal-oriented experimenter psi explains z's independence from sample size. Table 1's compilation of replication rates across paradigms is a key library reference.
Argues that retrospective meta-analyses have failed to resolve parapsychological controversies because they aggregate substantially underpowered studies. Compiles replication rates across major meta-analyses (Table 1), finding only 20-33% of well-conducted studies obtain significant results versus the 0.80 standard. A ganzfeld experiment needs N=201 for adequate power, yet the median is 40 trials (power 0.22). RNG meta-analyses consistently show z independent of sample size, contrary to statistical theory. Monte Carlo simulations confirm small-study effects in early ganzfeld data. Proposes goal-oriented psi experimenter effects as a parsimonious explanation and recommends prospective registration, adequate power, and best-evidence synthesis.
Related Papers
Cites
- Does Psi Exist? Replicable Evidence for an Anomalous Process of Information Transfer — Bem, Daryl J (1994)
- Examining Psychokinesis: The Interaction of Human Intention With Random Number Generators—A Meta-Analysis — Bösch, Holger (2006)
- Why Most Published Research Findings Are False — Ioannidis, John P.A (2005)
- Does Psi Exist? Lack of Replication of an Anomalous Process of Information Transfer — Milton, Julie (1999)
- Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random Physical Systems — Radin, Dean I (1989)
- Meta-Analysis of Free-Response Studies, 1992–2008: Assessing the Noise Reduction Model in Parapsychology — Storm, Lance (2010)
- Replication and Meta-Analysis in Parapsychology — Utts, Jessica (1991)
- False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant — Simmons, Joseph P (2011)
- Methods for Investigating Goal-Oriented Psi — Kennedy, J.E (1995)
- The Capricious, Actively Evasive, Unsustainable Nature of Psi: A Summary and Hypotheses — Kennedy, J.E (2003)
- A Proposal and Challenge for Proponents and Skeptics of Psi — Kennedy, J.E (2004)
- Reexamining Psychokinesis: Commentary on the Bösch, Steinkamp and Boller Meta-Analysis — Radin, D (2006)
- "Future Telling": A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 — Honorton, Charles (1989)
Same Research Program
- Addressing Researcher Fraud: Retrospective, Real-Time, and Preventive Strategies — Including Legal Points and Data Management That Prevents Fraud — Kennedy, James E (2024)
- Experimenter Fraud: What Are Appropriate Methodological Standards? — Kennedy, J.E (2017)
- Planning Falsifiable Confirmatory Research — Kennedy, James E (2024)
- Bayesian and Classical Hypothesis Testing: Practical Differences for a Controversial Area of Research — Kennedy, J.E (2014)
- Why Is Psi So Elusive? A Review and Proposed Model — Kennedy, James E (2001)
- Skepticism and Negative Results in Borderline Areas of Science — Kennedy, J.E (1981)
- Methods for Investigating Goal-Oriented Psi — Kennedy, J.E (1995)
Companion
- Testing for Questionable Research Practices in a Meta-Analysis: An Example from Experimental Parapsychology — Bierman, Dick J (2016)
- Mindless Statistics — Gigerenzer, Gerd (2004)
- Why Most Research Findings About Psi Are False: The Replicability Crisis, the Psi Paradox and the Myth of Sisyphus — Rabeyron, Thomas (2020)
Cited By
- Conclusions about Paranormal Phenomena — Kennedy, J.E (2013)
- Is the Methodological Revolution in Psychology Over or Just Beginning? — Kennedy, J.E (2016)
- Searching for the Impossible: Parapsychology's Elusive Quest — Reber, Arthur S (2019)
- Bayesian and Classical Hypothesis Testing: Practical Differences for a Controversial Area of Research — Kennedy, J.E (2014)
- Options for Prospective Meta-Analysis and Introduction of Registration-Based Prospective Meta-Analysis — Watt, Caroline A (2017)
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📋 Cite this paper
Kennedy, J.E (2013). Can Parapsychology Move Beyond the Controversies of Retrospective Meta-Analyses?. Journal of Parapsychology.
@article{kennedy_2013_beyond_meta_analyses,
title = {Can Parapsychology Move Beyond the Controversies of Retrospective Meta-Analyses?},
author = {Kennedy, J.E},
year = {2013},
journal = {Journal of Parapsychology},
}