Future directions in precognition research: more research can bridge the gap between skeptics and proponents
π Original study βPlain English Summary
What if you could use future events to make decisions right now? That's the wild question this opinion piece tackles. The authors argue that precognition research β the study of whether people can somehow sense things before they happen β needs bolder, more practical experiments that could actually convince skeptics. They point out that no known law of physics actually forbids information traveling backward in time, citing real theoretical frameworks from quantum mechanics where time can run both directions equally well. The paper proposes two creative experiments. One would use a task where people practice something after making predictions, to see if that future practice somehow improves their earlier guesses β essentially trying to predict roulette outcomes using backward-flowing learning effects. The other involves hooking people up to brainwave monitors (EEG) to detect brain signals that pop up before a stimulus is even shown, potentially building what they call a "retrocausal brain-computer interface" β a device powered by the future. The authors are refreshingly honest about the field's problems: effect sizes are tiny, replications are hard to pull off, and they draw a pointed comparison to social priming research, which faced its own credibility crisis. What makes this piece notable is the pedigree β co-author Jonathan Schooler runs a well-respected mainstream psychology lab, lending unusual credibility. He later described his approach as "entertaining without endorsing" these ideas, which is a delightfully careful way to engage with something this far out.
Research Notes
Bridges the skeptic-proponent divide by proposing self-evidently convincing applied paradigms. Published in a Frontiers Research Topic on precognition alongside Schwarzkopf (skeptical), Rabeyron, and Mossbridge. Connects the Schooler lab β known for mainstream replication and mind-wandering research β to the precognition literature. Schooler later published 'entertaining without endorsing' (2018).
An opinion article arguing that precognition research should move toward applied paradigms capable of real-time prediction of random future events. Reviews the physical plausibility of retrocausality via time-symmetric physics, Wheeler-Feynman absorber theory, and the transactional interpretation of quantum mechanics, noting no physical law precludes retrocausal information transfer. Acknowledges reliability concerns about small effect sizes and replication difficulty, drawing parallels to social priming research. Proposes two novel designs: a two-phase Go-NoGo task using future practice effects to predict roulette outcomes, and an EEG presentiment paradigm using pre-stimulus occipital potentials for binary prediction, potentially enabling a retrocausal brain-computer interface.
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Related Papers
Cites
- Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect β Bem, Daryl J (2011)
- Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events β Bem, Daryl J (2015)
- Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: A Meta-Analysis β Mossbridge, Julia (2012)
- Predicting the Unpredictable: Critical Analysis and Practical Implications of Predictive Anticipatory Activity β Mossbridge, Julia A (2014)
- "Future Telling": A Meta-Analysis of Forced-Choice Precognition Experiments, 1935-1987 β Honorton, Charles (1989)
- A Bayes Factor Meta-Analysis of Bem's ESP Claim β Rouder, Jeffrey N (2011)
- Why Psychologists Must Change the Way They Analyze Their Data: The Case of Psi β Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan (2011)
- Unconscious Perception of Future Emotions: An Experiment in Presentiment β Radin, Dean I (1997)
- Electrocortical Activity Prior to Unpredictable Stimuli in Meditators and Non-Meditators β Radin, Dean I (2011)
- A Call for an Open, Informed Study of All Aspects of Consciousness β CardeΓ±a, Etzel (2014)
- Skin Conductance Prestimulus Response Analyses, Artifacts and a Pilot Study β Spottiswoode, S.J.P (2003)
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Predictive Physiological Anticipation Preceding Seemingly Unpredictable Stimuli: An Update of Mossbridge et al.'s Meta-Analysis
π Cite this paper
Franklin, Michael S, Baumgart, Stephen L, Schooler, Jonathan W (2014). Future directions in precognition research: more research can bridge the gap between skeptics and proponents. Frontiers in Psychology. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00907
@article{franklin_2014_future_directions,
title = {Future directions in precognition research: more research can bridge the gap between skeptics and proponents},
author = {Franklin, Michael S and Baumgart, Stephen L and Schooler, Jonathan W},
year = {2014},
journal = {Frontiers in Psychology},
doi = {10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00907},
}