Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness
📄 Original study ↗📌 Appears in:
Plain English Summary
Could humanity's collective mental state nudge stock markets? This study uses data from the Global Consciousness Project — a worldwide network of random number generators believed by some to become less random during major world events — and asks whether daily peak readings predict stock returns. Across 5,200 trading days over two decades, the author found small but statistically significant non-linear links between the GCP's daily peak score and returns on the Dow Jones Global Equity Index, plus 11 of 12 other major indexes. Intriguingly, yesterday's GCP peak seemed to predict today's returns. Before you bet your retirement on psychic vibes, though, the caveats are serious: the effect explains only 0.2 to 0.3 percent of market movement, the model was chosen after seeing the data rather than pre-registered, and ordinary explanations like shared global news driving both arousal and markets haven't been ruled out.
Research Notes
GCP-style collective/unintentional consciousness paper, NOT individual PK — reclassified psi_domain accordingly. This provides a novel test of the GCP hypothesis that bypasses event-selection criticism: instead of asking whether RNG deviations increase during pre-defined global events, Holmberg asks whether daily Max[Z] correlates with an independent continuous time-series (stock returns). Key limitations: polynomial form and lag structure chosen post-hoc (no pre-registration), R2 increments are tiny (0.2–0.3%), and common-cause confounding (shared global news shocks) cannot be ruled out. Single-author independent-researcher paper in JCS, Vol. 27, No. 7-8, pp. 31-49.
Constructs a daily Max[Z] variable from GCP random-number-generator data (Jan 1999–Aug 2019, N=5,237 trading-day observations), defined as the 24-hour maximum composite Z-score across all active EGG nodes. Tests its correlation with global stock market returns via polynomial OLS regressions (2nd–3rd degree) with HAC-Newey-West standard errors. Finds statistically significant non-linear correlations between Max[Z] and daily open/close returns on the Dow Jones Global Equity Index (beta_Max[Z]t = 0.0007, p<0.01; R2 increment 0.2–0.3%), with 11 of 12 major global indexes (S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40, Nikkei 225, etc.) also showing significant effects. Yesterday's Max[Z] significantly predates today's returns (beta_Max[Z]t-1 = 0.000463, p<0.01), consistent with a temporal lead. Interpreted as collective-consciousness effect on investor sentiment.
Related Papers
Extends
Cites
- Reexamining Psychokinesis: Commentary on the Bösch, Steinkamp and Boller Meta-Analysis — Radin, D (2006)
- Searching for Global Consciousness: A Seventeen Year Exploration — Bancel, Peter A (2017)
- Searching for Global Consciousness: A Seventeen Year Exploration — Bancel, Peter A (2017)
- Evidence for Consciousness-Related Anomalies in Random Physical Systems — Radin, Dean I (1989)
- Examining Psychokinesis: The Interaction of Human Intention With Random Number Generators—A Meta-Analysis — Bösch, Holger (2006)
- Correlations of Random Binary Sequences with Pre-Stated Operator Intention: A Review of a 12-Year Program — Jahn, Robert G (1997)
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📋 Cite this paper
Holmberg, Ulf (2020). Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness. Journal of Consciousness Studies.
@article{holmberg_2020_stock,
title = {Stock Returns and the Mind: An Unlikely Result that Could Change Our Understanding of Consciousness},
author = {Holmberg, Ulf},
year = {2020},
journal = {Journal of Consciousness Studies},
}