Give the Null Hypothesis a Chance: Reasons to Remain Doubtful about the Existence of Psi
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Plain English Summary
Psychologist James Alcock lays out a no-punches-pulled case for why we should stay skeptical about psi -- things like telepathy and psychokinesis. His argument hits nine big problems. Nobody can clearly define what psi actually is. The results don't reliably replicate: physicist Jeffers ran a double-slit quantum experiment looking for psychic influence and got nothing, and a major multi-lab effort called PortREG also came up empty. Whenever an experiment fails, supporters invent new excuses -- bad experimenter vibes, subject boredom, mysterious "decline effects" -- conveniently making the whole idea impossible to disprove. Psi research also leans entirely on statistics rather than a repeatable, observable effect, and clashes with everything we know about physics and neuroscience. This essay remains arguably the single best summary of the skeptical position.
Research Notes
The most comprehensive single-essay articulation of the skeptical case against psi. Alcock's numbered arguments form the backbone of methodological objections that parapsychologists must address. His discussion of Jeffers' null double-slit results speaks directly to Radin's later double-slit program. His critique of post-hoc entity multiplication anticipates the replication crisis and concerns about researcher degrees of freedom.
Invited commentary for a JCS special issue on parapsychology enumerating reasons to maintain the null hypothesis regarding psi. Alcock presents a structured case built on: (1) lack of subject-matter definition, (2) negative definition of constructs, (3) failure to achieve replication — highlighting Jeffers' ignored null double-slit results and the Jahn consortium's null PortREG outcome, (4) multiplication of entities (psi-experimenter effect, sheep-goat, psi-missing, decline effects) to immunize against falsification, (5) unfalsifiability, (6-7) unpredictability and lack of cumulative progress despite technological advances, (8) unique reliance on statistical significance to infer the phenomenon's existence, and (9) incompatibility with established physics and neuroscience. Also engages with other special-issue contributors including Parker, Palmer, French, Brugger & Taylor, and Dean & Kelly.
Related Papers
Same Research Program
Companion
Critiques
- The Persistent Paradox of Psychic Phenomena: An Engineering Perspective — Jahn, Robert G (1982)
- Mind/Machine Interaction Consortium: PortREG Replication Experiments — Jahn, Robert G (2000)
- Information transmission under conditions of sensory shielding — Targ, Russell (1974)
- Consciousness and the Double-Slit Interference Pattern: Six Experiments — Radin, Dean (2012)
Cites
- Anomaly or Artifact? Comments on Bem and Honorton — Hyman, Ray (1994)
- Evaluation of a Program on Anomalous Mental Phenomena — Hyman, Ray (1996)
- Does Psi Exist? Lack of Replication of an Anomalous Process of Information Transfer — Milton, Julie (1999)
- Skepticism and Negative Results in Borderline Areas of Science — Kennedy, J.E (1981)
Cited By
- Searching for the Impossible: Parapsychology's Elusive Quest — Reber, Arthur S (2019)
- Lessons from the First Two Years of Operating a Study Registry — Watt, Caroline (2015)
- The Capricious, Actively Evasive, Unsustainable Nature of Psi: A Summary and Hypotheses — Kennedy, J.E (2003)
- Parapsychological Phenomena as Examples of Generalized Nonlocal Correlations—A Theoretical Framework — Walach, Harald (2014)
More in Skeptical
Cognitive Styles and Psi: Psi Researchers Are More Similar to Skeptics Than to Lay Believers
False-Positive Effect in the Radin Double-Slit Experiment on Observer Consciousness as Determined with the Advanced Meta-Experimental Protocol
Cross-Examining the Case for Precognition: Comment on Mossbridge and Radin (2018)
N,N-Dimethyltryptamine and the Pineal Gland: Separating Fact from Myth
Paranormal psychic believers and skeptics: a large-scale test of the cognitive differences hypothesis
📋 Cite this paper
Alcock, James E (2003). Give the Null Hypothesis a Chance: Reasons to Remain Doubtful about the Existence of Psi. Journal of Consciousness Studies.
@article{alcock_2003_give,
title = {Give the Null Hypothesis a Chance: Reasons to Remain Doubtful about the Existence of Psi},
author = {Alcock, James E},
year = {2003},
journal = {Journal of Consciousness Studies},
}